With Minnesota’s stay-at-home order set to expire on Sunday at 11:59 p.m., Gov. Tim Walz will soon have to announce the next steps for the state. A new epidemiological model will help guide him.
The University of Minnesota’s School of Public Health and the Minnesota Department of Health made information from the last model public in April, and have been working to update it with new factors and the latest data to project the spread of COVID-19. Past versions have laid out scenarios, based on responses like stay-at-home orders and isolating the vulnerable, about when hospitalizations could peak and what the death toll could be.
A new model is due to be released this week, officials said Monday.
While key, it won’t be the only information that Walz takes into account.
Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm said Monday: “There are just a large number of considerations and data points that we’re looking at in terms of guidance that’s come out from the CDC, our own thinking, what we know about transmission risk in different settings.”
Other factors include the amount of personal protective and medical equipment the state has been able to acquire, and what the curve of the disease could portend for rates of hospitalization and use of intensive care beds. As of Monday, 591 people Minnesotans had died from COVID-19 and 11,799 people had tested positive.
Another piece of critical information will be the state of the economy. More than 650,000 people have applied for unemployment benefits in Minnesota since March 16.
The Minnesota Senate passed legislation Monday that would allow many small businesses to resume operations if they abide by workplace safety recommendations and guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health.
“We’re bringing this bill forward because the Legislature has partnered with the governor for multiple weeks, and we’re asking the governor to start partnering with Minnesota businesses that are going to be using his guidelines to open up,” said Sen. Andrew Mathews, R- Milaca, the bill’s sponsor.
Sen. Bobby Joe Champion, DFL-Minneapolis, said Walz is already taking “meaningful steps” to reopen the economy, noting that 80 percent of Minnesota’s workforce is already exempt from the stay-at-home order and that the governor relaxed the rules to allow up to 20,000 businesses to reopen for curbside commerce starting last Monday.
A companion bill in the House of Representatives has not had a hearing.
ANOTHER SCENARIO ADDED TO MODEL
Another scenario was added to the university epidemiological model on April 28, according to the state’s website, but it hadn’t been discussed before Monday.
It predicted somewhat more deaths and more intensive care unit stays if the stay-at-home order is extended until the end of the month, compared with lifting the order but keeping some protections in place. The new scenario pushed the projected peak out by two more weeks until July 27, with roughly 25,000 deaths and a peak demand for ICU beds of 4,000.
Malcolm said the information was out of date almost as soon as it was posted and it will be updated in the newest version of the model, “so whether it would continue to show that with the new run, we can’t comment on that until we see that,” she said.
Version 3.0 of the model is not focusing much on scenarios that were in the past, and will be “a more refined and robust model that has also gone through some peer review,” said Stefan Gildemeister, the state’s health economist.
Sen. Michelle Benson, R-Ham Lake, said the next version of the model ought to include the impact of testing.
“It should include the possibility of treatment, as there’s a new FDA-approved treatment, so we should be forward-looking not working backwards,” said Benson, who chairs the health and human services finance and policy committee. “So I do have some concerns. We’re going to have to keep our eyes on this.”
INFECTION RATE DOUBLING EVERY 9 DAYS
The Minnesota Department of Health is aiming to have 460 case investigators on board by the end of the week. They trace whom patients may have come into contact with, including before they were symptomatic. As of last Wednesday, there were 150 investigators, with another 160 ready to be activated.
Officials announced Monday that an additional 13 Minnesotans have died and 528 more people have tested positive for the coronavirus.
Malcolm noted some positive news about the infection rate slightly slowing. It was doubling every eight days as of last week, but that number was nine days as of Monday, she said.
There were 452 people hospitalized, with 194 of them in intensive care as of Sunday afternoon.
The median age of the fatalities has been 83, and 80 percent of the deaths have been among residents of long-term care facilities.
Eight of the newly-reported deaths were residents of long-term care facilities. Two were Ramsey County residents in their 60s and 70s. Of nine Hennepin County residents, five were in their 90s, two were in their 80s and one each was in their 60s and 50s. A Rice County resident in their 60s and a Stearns County resident in their 90s also died.
Between the state and private labs, an additional 4,693 people were tested Sunday for a total of 115,781 completed tests in the state.
Of the confirmed cases, 7,536 people have recovered and no longer need to be isolated.
This report contains information from the Associated Press.