If it seems like Hurricane Dorian has become a semi-permanent feature of the news, there is good reason. The first bulletins about what was then “tropical depression 5” went out on Aug. 24, and the excruciatingly slow-moving storm has been dragging its way across the Atlantic ever since. There are television series that have had shorter lives. Lots of them.
Not only has Dorian gone on too long, but it’s still going too strong. Overnight it ticked back across the line from Category 2 to Category 3, and on Thursday morning is packing sustained winds of 115 miles an hour as it skates along 70 miles off the South Carolina coast. The storm is expected to weaken only slightly over the next 24 hours as it continues slowly to the northeast, and there remains the chance that the ever-widening eye will make landfall before it departs the coast on Friday evening.
Along the way, Dorian continues to bring a risk of strong storm surge. This afternoon, as that surge is connected to the incoming high tide in the Charleston area, it could bring water levels 8 feet above normal high tide. Add in winds that have already reached tropical-storm-force strength, and the potential for 10 inches or more of rain pounding down at a rate of 3 inches per hour, and there’s a strong possibility that streets are going to be underwater, homes are going to be damaged, and power is going to be out across a large area. Going into Friday, the storm could cause extensive damage to the beaches and islands of the Outer Banks.
The effect of the storm in the Carolinas isn’t going to be the devastation it brought to the northern Bahamas, but that doesn’t mean it can be written off as a summer storm. This is still a dangerous storm with the potential for life-threatening surge, damaging winds, and flash flooding. Everyone in the area needs to remain sheltered and vigilant.
As rescue crews continue to comb the Abacos and Grand Bahama, many people have been pulled miraculously alive from the rubble of destroyed homes. But the official death toll there is up to 20, with strong expectations that it will grow substantially. Most of those lost in the storm may never be found.
Even though the Bahamas are a foreign country, the U.S. Coast Guard has long operated bases, ships, and helicopters there, and those Coast Guard forces were some of the first on the scene to search for the missing and ferry the injured to hospitals out of the path of destruction. More Coast Guard forces have been involved in distributing water and food to the islands, where more than half the homes have been destroyed, and almost the entire population has been left without potable water.
Supplies are coming into the area from traditional sources such as the Red Cross, but also from unexpected quarters such as passing cruise ships. But the destruction on the islands represents a generational event. Rebuilding will not only take years; it also demands some serious thought about the rising seas and the possibility of more slow-moving, high-moisture, high-damage storms.