As then-Tropical Storm Dorian was headed for an impact with Puerto Rico on Wednesday, Donald Trump took that time to tweet-troll the people of the island for being insufficiently grateful—and to move $155 million in funds from FEMA to ICE. But Dorian skirted Puerto Rico, grew to a Category 1 hurricane as it passed the U.S. Virgin Islands, and now looks set to slam into Florida as a major hurricane arriving in time to ruin the state’s Labor Day weekend. Some models also hold out promise that the storm will take a course that carries the eye directly over Mar-a-Lago … so don’t be surprised if that FEMA money comes hurrying back.
The climate crisis will definitely play into the actions of Hurricane Dorian. Because the waters in the Atlantic are unusually warm, the storm is both growing rapidly and moving slowly. Currently tracking toward Florida at only 13 mph, Dorian has plenty of time to slide right through Category 2, and is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 storm late on Sunday or early on Monday. That slow speed means that the exact point of impact is currently difficult to predict. The storm could track down Mar-a-Lago way, pass over the Florida Peninsula, enter the Gulf, and gather strength for a repeat. Or it could strike much closer to the Georgia border and then turn up the coast. It’s too soon to say.
But wherever it hits, by the time it arrives it is expected to be big. Not just big as in containing high winds, but big as in extremely expansive. Florida could start feeling tropical storm-force winds on Saturday, two days in advance of an actual landfall. There will also be a large quantity of rain. Plus, the storm is unfortunately timed to arrive with some of the highest tides of the month. Depending on the time of day it actually hits and where along the coast it eventually impacts, Dorian could bring a dangerous storm surge into low-lying coastal communities.
As much as it might be nice to dream about a hurricane that plucks away Trump’s favorite source of chocolate cake and stops at the boundary of his property, this is not that storm. The extent of the storm is going to be massive, and the impact is going to be felt across the state.
And if you live anywhere in Florida and can get out, this is an excellent time to take a vacation somewhere else. Leave now.
Florida’s north-south axis is dominated by just a couple of major highways, making a state-long traffic jam a near certainty if Dorian grows to the magnitude expected, and especially if the storm hews to a more southerly course. So—seriously, people, if you have the means to leave the state, go. Today. While gasoline is still available and the roads are not paved in SUVs.
The storm could fizzle. It could strike the coast in a relatively unpopulated area. It could wander far to the north of expected track.
But none of those things is at all likely. The most likely scenario is a Category 3 storm striking Florida mid-state while dragging along torrential rains, high winds, and a substantial surge. There will be damage, flooding, and disruption. People will be in danger.
Over most of the state, homes have been built to very high wind standards following the devastation brought to the state by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Those standards have proved to be wise and have substantially reduced the damage done by lesser storms. But just as pictures from the Panhandle showed last year, those standards will not protect against the direct impact of a major storm that simply scrubs homes and businesses out of existence.
If you cannot leave, get inland, seek shelter, look for higher ground (such as it is, in Florida), and stay attuned to conditions that could change rapidly.
And now, let’s check in with Florida’s only Democrat elected statewide.