This past weekend saw Donald Trump ratcheting the authoritarianism up to 11, with the assertion that he may not accept vote results. The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the promise from Mitch McConnell that he will force through her replacement ratcheted the danger even higher. Trump wants to secure the Supreme Court now because he knows he'll be fighting the election results. It will be the people and the House of Representatives fighting Trump, the Senate, and likely the court. We need another ally. We need the fourth estate. That means the media needs to do something for the good of the country, for the preservation of everything and be prepared to completely upend their election night tradition.
That would mean no reporting on exit polling on election night. No big boards. No presidential calls until all the ballots are counted. Donald Trump cannot be given the opportunity to declare victory based on premature results. Because of coronavirus, an unprecedented percentage of the ballots are going to be cast absentee and by mail. The states all will have varying deadlines on when those ballots are due, including (as of a Monday court ruling) the battleground of Wisconsin which will now count ballots postmarked on Election Day up until November 9. All of the networks, cable news broadcasters, wire services, and major papers need to decide now that they won't give Trump any ammunition based on incomplete returns, and they need to start setting expectations with the public about it. It's not just me saying it. The National Task Force on Election Crises wants a plan, too.
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Last week, the Task Force, a consortium of election experts and academics issued a critical letter to the National Election Pool (which includes ABC, NBC, CBS, and CNN), Fox News, and the Associated Press urging them to detail how they were going to handle Election Day reporting. Specifically, the Task Force asked the outlets to share publicly: how they will handle exit polling with a large portion of the ballots being cast absentee; how they'll "contextualize discrepancies between Election Day results and final results," when final results will likely come days or weeks after November 3; what "policies and procedures you will use to protect your decision desks from internal and external pressure—political or otherwise—to call the election before the election results are clear"; and "plans to cover any politician who declares victory prior to your ability to make an accurate, evidence-backed projection."
"We know that there is a furious race to call the winner in every election cycle. But this year needs to be different," Rajiv Chandrasekaran, the head of policy and strategy at the Emes Project and a former editor at The Washington Post told Politico through the group's spokesperson. "With such a large number of absentee ballots that will be cast in so many battleground states, the rush to be first could result in getting it wrong."
"With a record number of mail-in and absentee ballots expected this election cycle because of the coronavirus pandemic, it is imperative for newsrooms to be transparent about their modeling and how they are accounting for an increase in vote by mail," said Avery Davis-Roberts, the associate director of the democracy program at The Carter Center and a member of the task force. "If the American electorate understands how the media will be addressing these challenges, they will have more trust in our democratic process."
They're not talking about the huge orange elephant in the room, but that's what's behind this whole push—they don't trust Trump, either. With Trump's efforts to get his voters to vote in-person (at the risk of their health and lives in a pandemic), it's possible or even probable that the Election Day, in-person vote will go to him. Nobody needs that to happen.
So yes, as many of us as possible need to cast our votes early and those who can safely, in person. You can find out all the deadlines and all the possibilities for voting on your state and/or county elections website. Check this list for when your state starts—and stop—counting ballots and plan accordingly. All of us who can make sure our votes are counted on Election Day should do so.
But we have to adjust our expectations of election night, just in case. We have to be prepared to go to bed not knowing what happened, and more importantly, ready to fight Trump's preemptive declaration of victory. The National Election Pool needs to do the same. They need to decide they are not going to allow Trump to seize the advantage. They also need to spread the word far and wide and repeatedly how they plan to do that. The National Task Force on Election Crises spells it out: "We urge you to take these additional steps towards transparency as part of your mission to inform the public and deliver accurate coverage of election results, especially how you account for the millions of expected absentee ballots," the letter from the Task Force reads.
"The American electorate—and our democracy—is depending on you."