It's women. It's older voters. It's suburban dwellers. It's independents. It's basically any voter who isn't a bona fide Trump cultist. En masse, nearly all those voting blocs seem to be turning their backs on the madman thrashing about in the Oval Office, based on recent national polling showing Joe Biden up by a nearly double-digit margin.
The GOP's "Southern strategy" of winning the South back from Democrats by appealing to white resentment may have finally reached the law of diminishing returns—accelerated in large part by the ugliness of Donald Trump himself.
Let’s send Sen. Mitch McConnell and his Senate Republicans packing. Give $2 right now to help get sweet revenge in November.
As The New York Times reports, at the state level, the GOP's challenges are one part Trump and one part rapidly shifting demographics in major cities like Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix, which have attracted an influx of younger voters, people of color, and highly educated voters even as once-Republican suburban areas turn toward Democrats.
Phoenix, for instance, is nested in Maricopa County, the state's most populous county (over 60% of the state's population) and now the fourth-largest county in the country. You basically can't win Arizona without winning Maricopa, which Trump did by three points in 2016. But according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump now trails Biden by nine points in Maricopa and eight points statewide.
Trump's entire political strategy from the get-go has been based on division—locking in certain white voters who once buoyed GOP fortunes, particularly in the South, at the expense of repelling pretty much everyone else. But Trump's overt racism and nasty appeals to fringe right-wing elements could deal a blow to Republicans in November that entirely upends their electoral map for the foreseeable future. As Arizona's GOP Gov. Doug Ducey told the Times, Republicans are going to have to reacquaint themselves with the fundamental truth of politics: “It’s a game of addition.”
But that realization may have come too late for a party that has been remade in Trump’s grotesque image after doing nothing but bowing down to him for four straight years. Trump's most solid base of supporters is white non-college educated voters—winning just enough of them in 2016 while holding on to just enough of the GOP's regular voting blocs to narrowly flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But in the intervening four years, Trump and his GOP enablers have successfully disgusted many of their once-reliable voters, putting Biden in a position to not only reclaim the Rust Belt states but potentially flip some very unlikely Sunbelt states, including an electoral juggernaut like Texas with its 38 electoral votes (EVs). Here's a quick look at the latest in a few states that seemed to be nearly impossible gets for Democrats at the outset of the cycle:
- Texas (38 EVs): Biden just made a nearly $6 million commitment to the state; 1.5 million new voters have registered since 2016; and the Biden campaign is likely sending Biden's wife, Jill (now confirmed), and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, there in the coming days. Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke is calling the Lone Star state "Biden's to lose." O'Rourke, who's planning a massive statewide phone banking effort next week tells the Times: “He can not only win our 38 electoral votes but really help down ballot Democrats, lock in our maps for 10 years, deny Trump the chance to declare victory illegally and send Trumpism on the run.”
- Georgia (16 EVs): The Times reports that the latest GOP polling shows Trump trailing Biden by several points, which is exactly where things lie in the polling aggregate. In the offing for Democrats are two GOP-held Senate seats along with several House seats, not to mention the 16 electoral votes in a state Trump won by six points in 2016. “It feels like after the debate there was a real shift,” said Democratic State Sen. Jennifer Jordan from suburban Atlanta. Jordan said “the fact that he has it is kind of a living example of how he has mismanaged and misjudged this virus” appeared to be the last straw for economic-oriented Republicans straddling the fence.
- South Carolina (Nine EVs): It's hard to imagine ruby red South Carolina going Democratic in the presidential election, but one never knows. Equally as tantalizing and perhaps more possible is giving GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham the boot. The Times reports that GOP Leader Mitch McConnell has had several "sobering conversations" with Graham, and the Senate Republican campaign arm has sent in reinforcements, deploying top aides there to take a more active role in his reelection.
More generally, Senate Republicans have been absolutely swamped by the cash flowing to Democratic candidates in the final stretch of the cycle.
"On Thursday, in a conference call with a group of lobbyists, Mr. McConnell vented that the party’s Senate candidates are being financially overwhelmed because of small-dollar contributions to ActBlue, the online liberal fund-raising hub," writes the Times.
Or maybe Senate Republicans are being financially overwhelmed because their policy stances and platform are simply repugnant, Mitch.