TOPLINE
A new poll released Tuesday has former Vice President Joe Biden and Democratic Senate candidate Jon Ossoff marginally ahead in Georgia, a departure from the state’s usual Republican tint and one that would plunge President Trump’s electoral map into chaos.
TOUGALOO, MISSISSIPPI - MARCH 08: Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden ... [+]
KEY FACTS
The poll of 661 registered voters, commissioned by End Citizens United and conducted by Public Policy Polling between June 12 and 13, put Biden at 48% and Trump at 46% in Georgia, where most polls have shown Trump leading narrowly.
The Peach State voted for Trump by 5 points in 2016, down from an 8 point victory for Romney in 2012, one of the few states to shift Democratic in 2016 thanks in large part to changing demographics and increased Democratic strength among suburban voters.
One reason for Trump’s weakness is his approval rating in the state, which is underwater by 3 points amid a rise in coronavirus cases and some of the fiercest George Floyd protests in the country.
Further down the ballot, Democratic Senate candidate Jon Ossoff, who won 52% in the state’s primary last week, narrowly avoiding a runoff, leads incumbent GOP Senator David Perdue by 1 point, 45% to 44%.
Perdue’s approval rating is underwater by 6 points, while his fellow Senator Kelly Loeffler, a Republican who faces a fierce intra-party challenge from Rep. Doug Collins, is down by 19 points.
A win by Ossoff would make him the first Democratic senator in the state in 15 years.
Key Background
Trump’s numbers have plummeted since the coronavirus outbreak began, especially in key states. That trend was further compounded by Trump’s response to civil unrest in the wake of George Floyd’s death. He trails in most swing states he won in 2016, like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, with a new poll of Michigan putting him down 16 points. But polls also show him vulnerable in typically Republican-leaning states like Texas, Ohio and North Carolina, while Biden consistently leads by healthy margins in Arizona.
Chief Critic
Trump has lashed out at bad polling in recent weeks. His campaign sent a letter to CNN last week demanding they retract a poll showing Biden up 14 points and apologize. GOP officials have taken a different tack, rejecting the accuracy of polls in general.
Surprising Fact
One other reliably Republican state where Trump leads narrowly in the polls is Arkansas, which he won by 27 points in 2016. A poll from Hendrix College released Sunday put him up just 2 points in the state. While experts are skeptical that Trump’s lead is truly that narrow, it is nonetheless a grave sign for him.
What To Watch For
With more and more polls showing tight races in states like Georgia and Texas, which are absolutely critical for any Republican electoral college victory, Trump will have to decide whether to divert resources from states like Michigan and Wisconsin to cover his flank. Trump has already been spending heavily in Ohio, which he won by 8 points in 2016 but where a recent Fox News poll has him down by 2 points. Biden can win the electoral college without Ohio, but no Republican has ever won the presidency without it.
