TOPLINE
A new poll puts former Vice President Joe Biden 14 points ahead of President Trump, the same result as a CNN poll from last week that prompted the Trump campaign to demand a retraction, while a conservative pollster puts Biden up 12 points, but state and local Republican Party officials are adamant that the polls will not be predictive of the result in November.
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 26: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a briefing on the coronavirus ... [+]
KEY FACTS
A poll from Abacus Data, conducted between June 11 and June 13, had Biden at 49% and Trump at 35% among registered voters.
Biden holds an even wider lead in a group of swing states won by Trump in 2016–Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin–with 52% to Trump’s 35%.
Meanwhile, conservative commentator John Solomon’s website posted a poll that has the president down by 12 points from Scott Rasmussen, historically a pro-Trump pollster whose old firm, Rasmussen Reports, is frequently cited by Trump.
In both polls, Biden is competitive among groups that Republicans typically dominate, like college-educated white voters and men.
Trump has not reacted well to bad polling in recent weeks, with Trump’s campaign attorney sending a letter to CNN last week demanding they retract a poll showing him 14 points down and apologize.
Chief Critic
Local-level Republican operatives are taking a different tack from Trump in the face of bad polling, ignoring the numbers and rejecting the premise that the polling is accurate. “I used to be an avid poll watcher until 2016… Guess what? I’m not watching polls,” Jack Brill, a local Republican leader in Florida, told Politico, despite polls of that race predicting the final margin within 1.1 points.
Tangent
One difference between 2016 and 2020 that may be benefiting Biden is the lack of prominent third-party candidates. A poll from Redfield and Wilton strategies last week found Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen and likely Green nominee Howie Hawkins polling at 1% and 0% respectively. The RealClearPolitics average had 2016 Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 5% and 2016 Green nominee Jill Stein at 3% at this point in the cycle four years ago.
Surprising Fact
One new poll has Biden competitive in a state that Democrats have lost by landslide margins in recent elections: Arkansas. A poll from Hendrix College on Sunday had Trump up just 2 points in the state, which he won by 27 points in 2016. Some experts cast doubt on the notion that Arkansas is actually competitive, but the poll nonetheless serves as a grave sign for Trump, who is down in several typically Republican states like Texas and Georgia.
