Ag PACs get behind vulnerable lawmakers

Presented by the Bipartisan Policy Center

With help from Liz Crampton and Doug Palmer

Editor’s Note: Weekly Agriculture is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro’s daily Agriculture policy newsletter, Morning Agriculture. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories.Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

AG PACS GET BEHIND VULNERABLE LAWMAKERS: The top political action committees run by major commodity groups so far this election cycle have donated more than $3.2 million — and strategically funneled funds to some of the most vulnerable farm state lawmakers in both parties, reports our Liz Crampton.

House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson received the most of all House and Senate aggies in tight races, at $55,500. Rep. Rodney Davis from Illinois received donations from nearly every group analyzed, a total of $33,500. The PACs represent pork, dairy, corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, cotton and chicken interests.

Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) also got sizable contributions.

Republican orgs get the edge: The National Republican Senatorial Committee took in $75,000 while the National Republican Congressional Committee received $80,000.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee received $20,000, while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Commission didn’t see a single dollar from the groups. Moderate Democratic commissions such as the Blue Dog PAC earned a few donations.

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DRIVING THE WEEK

ELECTION WATCH: AG COMMITTEES: We are just over a week out from election day. Of course, the presidential contest is taking up most of the oxygen in Washington and beyond, but there’s plenty of close races to watch on the House and Senate agriculture committees.

Here’s where things stand per the latest non-partisan predictions:

House Ag toss ups: Four House Ag Democrats are in toss up races, according to the Cook Political Report, including Chairman Collin Peterson, a race that’s gotten a lot of attention. But there are others to keep a close eye on, including Rep. T.J. Cox of California facing off against former House Ag member anddairyman David Valadao; as well as Reps. Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico and Anthony Brindisi in New York.

Close calls: Reps. Cindy Axne in Iowa, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, and Tom O’Halleran in Arizona are all rated as Lean Democrat. Republicans on the committee are generally in safer territory, though Reps. Rodney Davis of Illinois and Jim Hagedorn of Minnesota have real races. Davis’ race is rated as Lean Republican, while Hagedorn’s is a toss up.

Senate Ag: Aside from Sen. Joni Ernst being in a toss up race in Iowa — which the Sabato Crystal Ball, another political predictor, recently tilted to Lean Democrat — one of the most interesting contests to watch is the battle for retiring Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts’ seat in Kansas.

Kansas leans R: Rep. Roger Marshall from House Ag is running against Republican-turned-Democrat Barbara Bollier. Cook rates the race as Lean Republican. Arecent poll shows Marshall leading Bollier by about four points.

Tight races: Sen. Kelly Loeffler is in a toss up free for all special election race in Georgia, up against leading contenders Republican Rep. Doug Collins and Democrat Raphael Warnock (if no candidate hits 50 percent, there will be a runoff in January). The big news over the weekend: Two of Loeffler’s staff tested positive for Covid-19. The Georgia Republican tested negative, per AP.

Also of note: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, also on the committee, is being challenged by former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy. The race is rated as Solid Republican.

RURAL COVID WATCH: Most of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the United States right now are in rural counties with inadequate health care resources to handle a surge of infections.

A recent analysis in the New York Timesfound that one in fourth deaths from Covid is in a rural county. “That stands in contrast to March and April, when almost every death was in a metropolitan area, as the virus tore through the Northeast, after early clusters in the Seattle area and populous parts of California.”

Midwest surge: Across the Midwest, cases have climbed on average nearly 60 percent in the past two weeks (compared to about 35 percent nationwide). Across the country, “non-metropolitan counties have now recordedat least 100 cases or more per 10,000 people since the pandemic began — that’s almost double what it was in early September,”

‘It’s going to be over’: President Trump, for his part, continues to claim on the campaign trail that the U.S. is turning the corner on the pandemic, blames the media for being too focused on the coronavirus and blasts the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, for trying to lock up the country, reports POLITICO’s White House reporters Anita Kumar and Nancy Cook.

“We are coming around, we’re rounding the turn, we have the vaccines, we have everything,” Trump said at a rally in Londonderry, N.H., on Sunday. “Even without the vaccines, we’re rounding the turn. It’s going to be over.”

FOOD BOXES EXTENDED TO END OF THE YEAR: As we predicted in MA last week, USDA on Friday announced Friday it’s extending the Farmers to Families Food Box Program for another round of purchases — a move that extends the program to the end of the year.

The program had previously been slated to expire at the end of this month, but the third round has been off to a bit of a slow start, several contractors and non-profits have told POLITICO.

Round Four: The fourth round can be up to $500 million, USDA said. The program will continue to serve up combination boxes, which include fresh produce, dairy, milk and meat products.

By the numbers: USDA said Friday the program has surpassed 110 million boxes.

Ivanka Trump as ambassador: Ivanka Trump, first daughter and adviser to the president, was featured as touting the program in USDA’s press announcement on Friday.

USTR, USDA SAY CHINA HAS MET 71 PERCENT OF 2020 AG PURCHASE GOALS: Beijing also has implemented at least 50 of the 57 commitments it made to lower regulatory barriers for U.S. farm goods, in addition to buying $23.6 billion worth of U.S. farm goods, the agencies said.

“Since the agreement entered into force eight months ago, we have seen remarkable improvements in our agricultural trade relationship with China, which will benefit our farmers and ranchers for years to come,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement.

China committed in the phase one deal signed on Jan. 15 to try to buy an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. goods and services in 2020 and 2021, compared to 2017, which was the record year for U.S. exports to the world’s second biggest economy.

For U.S. agricultural exports, that worked out to expected purchases of $32 billion this year and $39 billion in 2021. China made separate commitments for increased purchases of U.S. manufactured goods and energy products, as well as services like travel, banking, insurance and use of intellectual property. The new report does include any information on that.

Another view: Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who has been critical of Trump’s trade policy, is releasing his own assessment of how well China is meeting its purchase obligations later this morning.

“My report shows China’s purchases this year are falling well short of the phase one goal, including for agriculture, but also for manufacturing and energy,” Bown told Morning Trade.

A separate report chaired by Nicholas Lardy, who also is a senior fellow at Peterson, lays out five recommendations on U.S.-China economic relations for the next administration. They include “recognize that the ‘tariff war’ has failed” and “avoid a policy of ‘decoupling’.”


Row Crops

—Sugar interests last week expressed concern to Secretary Perdue about the Dietary Guidelines potentially recommending Americans cut back on added sugars. One Michigan sugar company official warned the secretary such a move “could affect long-term demand.” Michigan Radio has more.

—The EU’s Environment Council on Friday endorsed a proposal to create protected areas for 30 percent of the continent’s land and water by 2030, but there’s also fresh criticism that the EU has not done enough to curb agricultural subsidies, The New York Times reports.

—A new ad featuring a farmer in Maine has launched to criticize Sen. Susan Collins for not talking more about climate change. The Maine Republican is locked in a tight race to keep her Senate seat against challenger Sara Gideon. You can watch it here.

—Steven Kopperud, a longtime lobbyist who worked with livestock and poultry interests and others, died last week in Minneapolis of “a sudden and highly unexpected arrhythmia,” Agri-Pulse reported Friday. He was 69. Our condolences to Steve’s family.

Correction: An earlier version of this newsletter contained outdated information on the Cook Political Report rating for Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s reelection race in Minnesota. The race was updated on Oct. 21 to being rated as a toss up.

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CORRECTION: An earlier version of this newsletter contained outdated information on the Cook Political Report rating for Rep. Jim Hagedorn’s reelection race in Minnesota. The race was updated on Oct. 21 to being rated as a toss up.