There will be at least 30,000 more Covid deaths in the UK however lockdown is lifted, SAGE experts have warned.

Data estimates the further 30,000 deaths would occur between February 12, 2020, and June 2022, even under the new or cautious scenarios.

In a worst case scenario, the estimates deaths rises to 150,000.

The harshest “very fast” scenario would lift all measures by April 26, as demanded by backbench Tory MPs.

The Imperial study estimated that could lead to 91,300 extra Covid deaths between this month and June 2022.

Put alternatively they estimated a range of anywhere from 52,500 to 146,400 deaths, since there are so many unknowns.

But it’s not the only scenario that leads to enormous levels of extra deaths.

The daily number of confirmed new cases of Covid in the UK has plunged in recent weeks (
Image:
Press Association Images)

So for example, if the end result of “unlockdown” is similar rules to what we had before Covid came along, we could end up with “a substantial resurgence in hospital occupancy that is comparable with the January 2021 peak.”

SPI-M add: “Imperial estimate a further 58,900 to 143,400 deaths between 12th February 2021 and 30th June 2022 in this scenario.”

Scientists from Warwick University and Imperial College London modelled six different speeds out of lockdown and looked at how they would affect hospitalisations and deaths.

Those were a “very fast”, “fast”, “medium” and “gradual” unlocking, as well as two “new” scenarios labelled 5a and 5b with slightly different timings.

In papers handed to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a SAGE subgroup, they make clear all six scenarios cause a third wave of some kind - it's just a question of how big.

The SAGE papers also warn how vulnerable the population will be even after a vaccine has been rolled out.

The harshest “very fast” scenario would lift all measures by April 26, as demanded by backbench Tory MPs (
Image:
Adam Gerrard/Sunday Mirror)
Boris Johnson will reveal details of the roadmap today (
Image:
Ian Vogler / Daily Mirror)

And they make clear we will need some measures like mask-wearing and hand-washing to remain in the long term.

Boris Johnson will reveal details of the UK's roadmap out of lockdown in a briefing to the nation at 3.30pm today.

While all schools in England look set to open to all year groups from March 8, there has been heated debate about the wider reopening of society - including non essential shops, pubs, gyms and hairdressers.

Rules for outdoor exercise are also expected to be relaxed on March 8 - with non-contact sports such as tennis and golf to follow three weeks later.

By Easter - April 4 - family and friends could be allowed to mix, outdoor gatherings will be limited to either six people or two households, whichever is larger.

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Mr Johnson’s “roadmap” will include four tests which must all be met before the next step can go ahead.

The plan will be rolled out across the country at the same time with no return to regional tiers.

Mr Johnson is expected to announce the plan in the House of Commons.

The reopening will be dependent on four tests - the vaccine rollout is going to plan, it is reducing hospitalisations and deaths, infection rates are not risking a surge in serious cases, and a new variant hasn't moved the goalposts.

But if all goes to plan, the rules mean families who have not seen each other since before Christmas will be able to meet for a picnic in time for Easter.

It is thought the "stay at home" legal order in England will be dropped from March 29.

Today's announcement comes after Boris pledged to vaccinate all UK adults by July.

The PM’s new deadline to vaccinate all over-18s is months ahead of the original autumn target.